I can venture to predict with 100% probability: this weekend, voters will elect Andrzej Papiš as president of the Czech Republic or not (Perhaps I don’t need to warn you about the paradox here)
Is it the former or the latter?
Let’s think about losing.
It was the second defeat in the series. The Parliamentary elections have relegated him to the status of an opposition politician, which does not suit him. A second loss would mean a major shake-up in his position. In that parliamentary defeat, God helped him to win a five-wheeler by jumping out of the house. Overall, Babiš-Zemano received a majority of the world vote, and if the quorum had been three percent (as it is elsewhere), Babiš would have won. However, the second loss can no longer be blamed on God. Here, on the other hand, the sum of the numbers indicates the superiority of the Peter Paul camp. So it’s a total loss, and the tricks used so far with peace, a baby Jesus in a pocket, a pedestrian queue for jewels, a tram ride for Jabloneck and a patron saint for Monica can only have a purely comical effect. Suddenly Babis is a stock in the fence.
It can have huge consequences. Of little use, Andrej Babiš is not zero. It was an event in Czech politics, with parliamentary elections in full swing Defiant children And at least the first round of the presidential election was a mess. At the same time Babis phenomenon This has a devastating effect on our political scene – through Babis’ fault, the ANO plays a regressive role in the political scene, just as the communists played. This is because they have more voter support, but as a movement they are less able to control coalition cooperation on the parliamentary floor. Suddenly, there’s a caveat in the political spectrum — because of Papiss, who, as a person, is fundamentally disturbing and obstructing. Without him, the ANO can continue to function, its program / non-program essentially identical to the program of that part of Social Democracy, which promises everything to everyone and, above all, more to everyone. ANO took this area of social democracy under its wing. But there is also an idealistic part of Social Democracy, and that went mostly to the Pirates, and partly to the People’s Party and TOP09. If Babiš returns to the food business, ANO can survive without him and function as a stable political organization. Babish’s loss may hasten his exit from the scene, and it will be like the devil leaving and his stench leaving quickly.
Now the second option is when Babiš wins and comes to the castle.
It automatically conflicts with the ruling coalition. He based his campaign on the thesis that Petr Pavel is a puppet of the government, he is independent, and although he was nominated by ANO, it could not have been otherwise, even though Pavel had eighty thousand votes. But where he got his support is more important. The SPD, the Tricolor and the Communists gave him one recommendation or another. He had his photo taken with Skala, and Foltina, a pro-Russian fanatic, spoke to him even during the emotional moments of the first-round defeat. All pro-Russian websites support it, starting with Aeronet. Babiš will take these people to the castle and somehow repay them by reminding them well what is happening today in this context.
A new system is emerging in which Central Europe (including the Czech Republic) plays an important political role. Poland, with a clearly defined foreign policy and defense program, is leading the way here. The Petr Fiala government (which emerged from the elections) while Pánbu is not at home is in line with this trend. The Central European Group is defined against the old “Western Europe”, certainly against the Paris-Berlin axis. It is all uncertain and in the making – and depends on who is the head of the republic at this particular moment. Will he support the liberation of Central Europe against Russia? That is the important question.
It’s good to remember that Babiš’s flamboyant bromance with Emmanuel Macron is the worst suggestion in this context. So far in Brussels, he has always seemed a sycophantic helper – dependent, after all, on his Agrofert subsidies. This man leans towards Macronov-Scholz Munichism, which can be assumed to be a fact, and it has always been so, and everything he promotes. Diplomatic feats Ended in surrender. Babiš did not draw a green deal on the posters.
From this perspective, how would Peter Pavel react if he were in the castle?
We don’t know that, we know he has NATO policy behind him, while Babis can only lie about his role in the series of losses against Brussels’ demands.
New topic – We will not help Poland
On Sunday evening, Andrzej Babis made a surprise appearance on Czech TV’s Electoral Fight, where he faced an apparently ill Petr Pavlov. The next two days will show whether he made such a fatal mistake, as Karel Schwarzenberg did ten years ago when he said Benes would stand up for his orders before the Human Rights Court in his fight with Zeman. Moderator Řezníček asked Babis how he would react as president if Russia attacked Poland, and Babis commented that our military should not go to help.
This is undoubtedly Babis’ mistake, but practically one must ask what effect it will have on the electorate. We will surely hear from many sides in the coming hours the chant about Babiš rejecting NATO unity.