Ukraine strengthens Avtivka. He writes that there are good reasons to believe that one of the best regiments of the Ukrainian army is strengthening the eastern city. Forbes.
The publication notes that it could be the 3rd Separate Assault Brigade – one of the ground brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which is known to have been deployed in eastern Ukraine last week.
“It is not a foregone conclusion that the Ukrainians will reinforce Avdiivka. Obviously, by deciding to stay and fight, Ukrainian troops are taking a huge risk.
After four months of fierce fighting, earlier this month Russian troops from the 2nd and 41st Joint Armies finally broke through Avdiivka's defenses and came within a few hundred meters of the main road that supplies the Ukrainian garrison town. Forbes writes.
Last week, Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnovsky announced reinforcements in the Avdiiv direction, journalists say. “We are strengthening the barrier line, establishing additional fire positions and attracting new effective forces. Logistics delivery continues,” he noted.
“At that point, Tarnovsky had two options. Withdraw the remaining units of the 110th Brigade from the unprotected east side of the city and reinforce the Ukrainian line in the center of Avtivka or immediately outside the city to the west. Or reinforce the 110th Brigade and try to push the brigade and the much larger Russian forces back from the garrison's supply lines. . . However, Turnavsky may not have made up his mind,” the article states.
The publication recalls that last week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky dismissed Valery Zalushny as the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces and replaced him with General Oleksandr Chirsky.
“Zalushny has a reputation for advocating mobile security to reduce Ukrainian casualties—deserved or not?
By promoting Chirsky, Zelensky may have signaled his intention to fight for Avdiivka. Even at a higher price,” writes Forbes.
The release added that Avdiyivka's defenses have slowly collapsed in recent weeks, forcing one of the best brigades to halt training and return to the front. However, the article states, this collapse was not inevitable because the city's defenses were properly constructed at the start of the Russian offensive.
“Failure to defend Avdiyivka was the choice of pro-Russian Republicans in the US Congress. When these lawmakers rejected additional aid to Ukraine starting in October, coincidentally, at the same time the Russians attacked Avdiyivka – the Howitzers 110th Regiment began to quiet down Avdiyivka's flanks, hoping to turn them into an artillery zone.” Forbes writes.
The article says that one can only guess what will happen next in Avdivka.
“But don't expect the Ukrainians to suddenly find lots of spare ammunition. Unless the Republicans in the US relent and the US somehow expedites new aid to Avdiyvka, any Ukrainian units in the city will continue to deplete their arsenals. .
If ammunition runs out, it doesn't matter if there is one Ukrainian regiment in Avdiivka or two. The decision of the Ukrainian command to reinforce the city will be controversial at best.
In the worst case, this will lead to bloodshed for Ukrainian troops, who will try to escape to the west of the city, which they will no longer be able to defend,” the publication concludes.
Texty.org.ua trailer: We agree with Forbes military columnist David Ax that strengthening the defenses of Avtivka is a very risky move. According to the authors, maintaining the city is too difficult and sending reserves is too irrational.
Donbas, Syrian war for Avdiyivka, shortage of ammunition
