ANO leads, ODS strengthens at the expense of coalition partners, support for out-of-room parties grows, survey shows

SThe ANO movement will win the peaceful elections in March with 32 percent of the vote, second ODS with 14 percent and third Pirates with 10.5 percent of the popular vote. SPD with seven percent and STAN with six percent will also pass the lower house. Among the current parliamentary parties, the People's Party and TOP 09 remain outside the lower chamber, while support for political groups now outside the House of Representatives is increasing. This follows from the election model, which the company published on its website on Wednesday Intermediate. Willingness to participate in the election rose slightly to 62.5 percent against the February survey.

“March data show voter fatigue with parliamentary parties, manifested by relatively high support for parties outside the House of Representatives. Increases in support were recorded by KSČM, PRO 2022, Přísaha, Zelení and Trikolora,” the authors of the survey said. According to them, this change may be the result of the opening campaign before the elections to the European Parliament.

Support for ANO and Pirates was little changed, increasing by one percentage point for ANO and half a percentage point for Pirates compared to the February median sample. The STAN movement did not maintain February's nine percent support. “ODS continues to strengthen at the expense of its alliance partners,” Median reported. Among the parties that Spoluk formed an alliance with ODS before the last parliamentary election, TOP 09 and People's Party will each get 3.5 percent of the vote in March. “TOP 09 will be outside the House of Representatives for the first time since April 2023,” the authors of the survey noted.

According to Median, the SPD has lost support by 2.5 percentage points compared to February, mainly losing PRO 2022 and Tricolor. PRO 2022 will be elected by four percent of voters in March and Tricolor by two percent. KSČM and Social Democracy (SOCDEM) will receive 4.5 percent each, while the model gives 3.5 percent to the Přísaha Movement and three percent to the Green Party.

The authors of the survey said that the parties of the current government coalition – ODS, TOP 09, People's Party, STAN and Pirates – received a total of 37.5 percent of voters' support. They would have won 88 of the 200 parliamentary seats without forming an alliance before the elections.

“The willingness to participate in elections has slightly increased compared to the last survey,” Median said. According to their report, 53 percent of respondents will definitely participate in the elections for the House of Representatives in March, and 9.5 percent are considering participating. 30 percent of survey participants will not go to vote, compared to 7.5 percent.

Median polled 1,041 people ages 18 and older from March 5 to April 3. The margin of error is 1.5 percentage points for smaller parties and three percentage points for stronger parties.