ISW assesses enemy attack in Zaporizhzhia area – TSN News 1+1 probability

The Russian command may be interested in trying to recapture territory recaptured by Ukrainian forces during a counteroffensive in the summer of 2023.

OSUV “Davria” reported that Russian troops are massing a large force and are preparing to resume the offensive in the Zaporizhzhia region. However, ISW has seen no recent indications that the aggressors intend to resume offensive operations in the western part of the region in the near future.

This is stated in the report of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

The Russian command has reorganized the command structures of its troop group in southern Ukraine. Ukrainian military observer Kostyantin Mashovets said on February 15 that the enemy command disbanded the “Zaporyska” troop group (an unnamed Russian troop group responsible for the western part of the Zaporizhia region at least from the beginning of the armed forces' counteroffensive. Summer 2023). According to Mashovets, the Command of the Russian Federation entrusted the “Dnipro” troop group under the command of the Airborne Forces of the 58th Combined Arms Army (Southern Military District) and the commander of the “Dnipro” troop group, Colonel. General Mykhailo Deblinsky.

It is noteworthy that elements of the 58th Combined Arms Army were mainly responsible for manning the Russian defense lines in the western part of Zaporizhia province during the counterattack of the armed forces with parts of the Russian 7th and 76th Airborne Divisions. Conducted limited counterattacks in the area.

“ISW found signs of that The Russian command may consider the west of the Zaporizhia region and the Kherson region as a single operational axis, And subordinating the 58th Combined Arms Army to the Dnipro Group may be an attempt to bring existing battlefield command structures into line with this vision,” analysts assess.

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Mashovets reported that the Russian command replaced divisions 5, 35 and 36 of the Eastern Military District, which were generally responsible for operations in the Zaporizhia region and the border zone of the Donetsk-Zaporyzh region, with “DPR” units. and various divisions of the Russian Federation, from the “Zhaborijsky” troop group to the Eastern troop group.

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The company also drew attention to the fact that on February 14, the spokesman of the “Davria” OSUV Dmytro Likova said that the invaders were gathering a large group in the direction of Orihiv. Perhaps Zaporizhia is preparing to resume offensive efforts in the western part of the region. According to Likovi's latest estimates, the Russian group in that direction is numerically comparable to the enemy group around Avdiivka, which has approximately 50,000 fighters.

ISW ignores recent indicators that Russian forces intend to resume offensive operations in the near future “Although the Russian command is interested in trying to return the territory captured by Ukrainian forces during the counteroffensive in the summer of 2023, in the western part of the Zaporizhzhia region,” the ISW concluded.

Deputy Chairman of the Zaporizhzhia Regional Council Serhiy Lyshenko Earlier, we will remind that Russian troops are mostly preparing to attack the so-called Robotynsky Ledge in the Zaporizhzhia region.

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